Background and objectives

Horizon scanning is part of the methodological spectrum of technology assessment at TAB and has been carried out regularly since 2014 by the Institute for Innovation and Technology (iit) of the cooperation partner VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH.

Horizon scanning is used to monitor new technological developments and systematically assess their opportunities and risks. In this way, the potential for technological, economic, ecological, social and political change is identified and described as early as possible. The aim of horizon scanning is to contribute to the orientation of research and innovation policy and to the opinion formation of the Committee for Education, Research and Technology Assessment.

Approach and results

In practice, horizon scanning is carried out as a combination of software-based search and analysis steps and an expert-based validation and evaluation process.

The software-based process primarily analyses qualitative data and information to identify potential issues. The process starts with the selection of sources to be considered: These include internet magazines, blogs and the main leading print media, popular science sources, but also scientific foresight reports and reviews.
At the same time, an expert-based process is carried out to validate and evaluate the prepared information, which is based on the expertise of the participating experts both in the VDI/VDE-IT team and in the entire TAB. The following criteria are used for the selection of the proposed topics
Public discourse: The topic is covered in the media, controversies/conflicts arise, social actors take a stand.
Topic characteristics: The topic represents a technological development/innovation and touches on social, economic, environmental, ethical or geopolitical issues.
Time horizon: The topic is expected to remain in the political and social debate for the next 5 to 10 years and to gain in importance.
Relevance: There is an increased need for information on the part of policy makers; the legal framework may need to be adapted; one or more policy areas will be addressed.
The (interim) result is a collection of information on current scientific and technological trends in the form of annotated topic headings (teasers), which are then discussed with all TAB participants with regard to their relevance and suitability for further analysis. The result of this discussion is a final list of topics for which short profiles are produced and submitted to the TA Rapporteur Group prior to publication. All topic profiles (publication series, only German) ("publication series") provide a compact overview of the state of scientific, technological and socio-economic developments in a topic and their relevance for policy and society. They also include a detailed bibliography and a description of possible further work on the topic.