In the first phase, foresight and TA studies in the environment of the selected infrastructure systems will be identified and analysed. In particular, medium to long-term trends that have a demonstrable impact on the infrastructure systems will be identified. In addition, relevant scientific sources for the analysis of systemic risks are evaluated, taking into account the results of the TA project "Crisis radar - strengthening the resilience of society, politics and the economy through crisis prediction". Emerging socio-technical trends may pose a threat to societies or economic systems as a whole, and thus fundamentally entail the risk that the functionality and stability of infrastructure systems may be significantly impaired if these risks materialise.

merging socio-technical trends are also identified using software and AI technologies. For this purpose, a pool of sources has been established, including relevant databases (e.g. EPTA, ORBIS, Knowledge4Policy, OpenTA), publications (foresight studies, trend reports, conference proceedings and preprints), scientific platforms (e.g. ScienceDaily) and journalistic background analyses (Tagesspiegel Background, Heise online). The latest publications are retrieved semi-automatically and continuously via a central platform. The team regularly reviews the articles and assesses their relevance to the selected infrastructure systems. In addition, media analysis software with access to 150 million online sources is used to search for innovations. The focus is on daily and weekly newspapers and online news.

In the second phase, interviews will be conducted with selected experts in order to gather their expertise, assessments and opinions on key trends and challenges as well as interdependencies related to systemic risks to infrastructure systems. A standardised set of guidelines and questions will be developed for the interviews. Based on the results of the interviews, moderated infrastructure-specific workshops will be held with selected experts. The first results of the work on the system picture of the respective infrastructure system and on relevant trends and possible consequences of systemic risks will be presented and discussed. Finally, an assessment of policy relevance and possible in-depth topics will be made. During the interviews and workshops, the interviewees' answers as well as further comments, notes and detailed explanations are recorded and the results are then evaluated qualitatively.

In the third phase, an exploratory online survey is carried out for each of the infrastructure systems with the involvement of the expert panel using the SoSci Survey software and involving the expert panel. The task is to select trends based on the previous steps and to evaluate them in terms of their impact on the vulnerability and resilience of the infrastructure system in question. The experts will also be asked to identify which trends could contribute to increasing the resilience of infrastructure systems over the next 10 years and which trends could particularly hinder the transformation of infrastructure systems towards climate neutrality. They are also asked to assess how the resilience of each infrastructure system is currently assessed in relation to priority systemic risks. Finally, for each system, the experts are asked to identify the key issues that should be prioritised by policymakers over the next five years with regard to the resilience of the infrastructure system. The quantifiable part of the results will be analysed statistically, while the comments, suggestions and detailed explanations will be subjected to a qualitative analysis.